Election Post: Week 4

As election day is nearing and the last debate is over, many websites and organizations are tracking voter's reactions and thoughts through polling. Looking at the presidential election I reasearched both the Gallup Poll and the C-SPAN poll.

-The Gallup Poll conducted from 10/03 to 10/05 and polled a sample of 2744 registered
voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 points. The poll revealed Obama winning
with a 50% and McCain trailing with a 42%.

-The C-SPAN Poll was conducted from 10/05 to 10/07 and polled a sample of 1220 likely
voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points as well. Again, it showed Obama
leading with a 47% and McCain slightly behind with a 45%.

Looking now at a more local race, the VA Senate race is also heating up between Warner and Gilmore. So far, for most of the polls I looked at I seems to be a sweep away by the Democratic candidate, Warner. Let's take a closer look by analyzing two polls, the Rasmussen and the Washington Post polls.

-The Rasmussen Poll, conducted on 9/25, polled 700 likely voters and showed Warner
winning with 60 points and Gilmore behind him with 34 points.

-The Washington Post Poll, conducted from 9/18 to 9/21, polled 698 likely voters and also
showed Warner holding a significant lead over Gilmore. (61:31)

Most polling data was comparable and, to some extent, showed most of the same results. Since most polls are very similar, it comes down to which sources are more accurate. Today, polling helps political candidates to see what the American people prefer; policymakers can keep in touch with changing opinions on issues. Polls can easily impact a campaign, too. Often they can create a bandwagon effect where voters only support a candidate because they see so many others are. It's kind of like peer pressure in a way. Also, exit polls are inaccurate in their findings because it is not a random sample and the findings are stated way too soon on election day considering our different time zones. Polls are only effective and accurate in gauging public opinion if they are conducted with a good numbered sample (around 1000-1500 people to be polled), a random sample (everyone should have an equal probability of being selected to be polled), and there is a decent sampling error (level of confidence in the finding of a public opinion poll). Most of the polls have small samples of less than 1000 people so in that case they would not be that accurate, but it is a good thing that the poeple sample are likely or registered voters.



***wow this is the longest post i've written...haha***

Service Learning Project...Take three

So there's no pictures but today was yet another volunteer day at the Obama campaign office. I went with Tyler, Ronny, and Maggie. We took advantage of the early dismissal and worked from 11:30-1:30 passing out flyers to local restraunts, stores, and my favorite, on people's cars!!! When we first arrived at the office they said they had reached capacity and had no work for us...we semi-complained because we had called our coordinator to let her know we were coming, and they told us about the flyers and were happy to have us. At first I thought they just wanted us to get out of their faces and I thought that was rude, but i was wrong and it all worked out. Anyhow, we started off the job by copying soooo many copies thanks to Maggie!!! GREAT WORK! Overall, this was a pretty chill job and most people were happy to have one. We did learn something though; front desk people at the Herndon Community Center can be very rude...but really we learned that you can't post political stuff up in government buildings. (or at the bread store in downtown Herndon!) Since we couldn't post at HCC then we decided to use some more flyers on some more cars but no... We finished our job and returned to the office to check out and apparently even putting flyers on the cars at HCC is not welcomed because the front desk lady called the office complaining about complaints she had received...they are poopers and just jealous they can't be president!!! haha jk! They were happy with what we did and we told them we would be back on Monday!!!! till then!!! :)

Current Event #4

My current event this week focused on the 'Bradley Effect'. This theory is named after former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley and his experience while running for the 1982 gubernatorial race in California. He was ahead in the polls up untill the eve of his election and ended up losing the election. The 'Bradley Effect' questions if poll-takers, especially the White participants, will actually vote for the Black candidate like they say they will. In the upcoming election involving Obama and McCain, people are skeptical of this effect taking place. Others say there is little reason for voters to hide their true feeling considering society is now more tolerant to race. The question is if Obama's poll excessing poll numbers are true. The real test will come on election day. Interest is very high in this election, due to our economic standing and foreign affair issues, I just hope people really consider the candidates for what they stand for not the color of their skin. It's time for people to put down their selfish, racist feelings, put doubt aside, and think about what will benefit our nation as a whole. I can not wait to see what the turn out and outcome of this November 4th election will be; I just wish I could be a part of history in the making. :)

Election Blog Week #3

Looking into the Virginia Senate Race, the candidates are Mark Warner (D) and Jim Gilmore (R). Warner served as governor from 2002-2006. He has been involved with the largest investment in K-12 education, the Chesapeake Bay clean-up, budget cuts, and making business-like reforms. In addition, he also chaired the National Governors Association. Mark Warner is best known for his bi-partisan approach to politics. Gilmore is the son of working class parents from Richmond. He was the 68th Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia (focused on education and tax cuts), attended the University of Virginia, and volunteered in the U.S. Army. Gilmore also served as the Virginia Attorney General working to investigate Medicaid fraud, government waste, and consumer protection. Both candidates have much to offer. They have the experience needed to actively and accurately represent Virginia in the U.S. Senate. With our suffering economy and more and more coverage getting scarce to find, Health care is the top issue at stake in this election. Mark Warner is fighting to fix this problem. He plans to bring down the price of prescription drugs and believes that everyone should have access to affordable, universal Health care coverage. Jim Gilmore plans to bring about tax reforms to help peoples ability to buy health insurance. To do this his plan is to start with small businesses and make it easier for them to afford the Health care. He also plans to crack down on the frivolous lawsuits that are contributing to this crisis and increase technology in the medical field to more accurately diagnose and treat patients.

According to the Election Forecasting Punditry, Warner is leading the polls with a 57% to Gilmore's 37%. As the days get closer it will be interesting to see how much more attention the candidates recieve and what other issues, on top of Health, care stand out as the most important.

Current Event #3

BUSH VISITS BOYHOOD TEXAS HOME

This past week Bush returned to where he grew up in Midland, Texas. He visited his old home, now a historic site, and talked to local supporters. This was his first visit since his send-off to Washington in 2001. In doing so he stated that it was a "heartwarming experience" and that it's always good to retrace where one began. He also used this visit to convince the locals that he is still the same person they knew before and that he will never change as a person because of The White House. All in all, this article reassured me that Bush has not forgotten where he came from like the many other people that achieve fame and fortune. It shows me that Bush is a down to earth guy and that he has a special place in his heart for his home town just like any other American. I'm sure Bush's visit was what exactally what he needed to close out his eight years in office.

Volunteering part 2: WE SAW MR. BERGMAN!!!

So yesterday was yet another day of canvassing in the local neighborhoods for Obama. It was Maggie, Sarah, Tyler and I. This time the weather and directions were on our side; it was not raining and we knew where we were going. The only thing was that it was a little chilly out...all well. This time I actually took pictures too! So yeah...let's see. A bunch of the houses either smelled bad, had creepy walkways/ doors, or had owners that clearly refused us. That's not a good feeling. Some people looked at us and went right back to washing dishes or whatever they were doing. There was a guy who preached to us about getting the young population out to vote even though Tyler is the only one who can vote, a house that was full of strong Republicans with McCain/ Palin signs in the yard, and a child who gave us Go-Gurt as we left. yummy!!! Even more exciting WE SAW MR. BERGMAN!!! It's a long story, but we were in his neighborhood while canvassing and he was at a friend's house on his way home. He pulled over to talk to us and it made me miss him even more. :( He told us that back in the day Palin played the flute for her talent in the Miss. Alaska competition. Ofcourse right when I got home I "youtubed" it and saw her. Just like Mr. B said she just might be sitting last chair in symphonic band. haha! Anyhow, yesterday went a lot better because we had a feel for what we were doing. At the end of the night after counting up our results we only got about 20 contacts for about 45 houses. Looking at the numbers, it made us a little disappointed in how we did but I guess we can say that for those 20 some people we did talk to it made us confident that people believe in what Obama has to offer. Only 4 more hours of fun!!!

Meghan Walsh... wonderful

I think that Meghan Walsh should run for president. Not only is she beautiful and charismatic, but I think she really cares about the issues. She is very intelligent- I wish I could be like her!!!! Unfortunately, I am not nearly as cool. I will continue to try, however, and hopefully one day I can be half as awesome as she is.
Meghan FTW!!!

Carrie KURTZZZZZZZ